Publications & Press Coverage

Peer-Reviewed Publications

  1. Howerton, E., Ferrari, M.J., Bjørnstad, O.N., Bogich, T.L., Borchering, R.K., Jewell, C.P., Nichols, J.D., Probert, W.J.M., Runge, M.C., Tildesley, M.J., Viboud, C. and Shea, K. (2021) Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing. PLOS Computational Biology: 17(10): e1009518. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009518
  1. Blackwood, JC, Malakhov, MM, Duan, J, Pellett, JJ, Phadke, IS, Lenhart, S, Charles Sims, C, and Shea, K (2021) Governance structure affects transboundary disease management under alternative objectives. BMC Public Health 21: 1782. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11797-3
  1. Ware-Gilmore, F., Sgrò, C.M., Xi, Z., Dutra, H.L.C., Jones, M.J., Shea, K., Hall, M.D., Thomas, M.B., McGraw E.A. (accepted 6/10/2021) Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in mosquito, Aedes aegypti, with the potential to change disease distributions. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
  1. Nichols, JD*, Bogich, TL*, Howerton, E, Bjørnstad, ON, Borchering, RK, Ferrari, M, Haran, M, Jewell, C, Pepin, KM, Probert, WJM, Pulliam, JRC, Runge, MC, Tildesley, M, Viboud, C, Shea, K. (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. PLOS Biology.  https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/authors?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307
  2. Rebecca K. Borchering*, Cécile Viboud*, Emily Howerton, Claire P. Smith, Shaun Truelove, Michael C. Runge, Nicholas G. Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Salerno, Wilbert van Panhuis, Matt Kinsey, Kate Tallaksen, R. Freddy Obrecht, Laura Asher, Cash Costello, Michael Kelbaugh, Shelby Wilson, Lauren Shin, Molly E. Gallagher, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Juan Dent, Kyra H. Grantz, Joshua Kaminsky, Stephen A. Lauer, Elizabeth C. Lee, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Lindsay T. Keegan, Dean Karlen, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Xinyue Xiong, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Alessandro Vespignani, Ajitesh Srivastava, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Brian Klahn, Joseph Outten, James Schlitt, Patrick Corbett, Pyrros Alexander Telionis, Lijing Wang, Akhil Sai Peddireddy, Benjamin Hurt, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe, Jessica M. Healy, Rachel B. Slayton, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A. Johansson, Katriona Shea†, Justin Lessler† (2021) Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical adherence scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 70(19): 719–724.

  1. Li, S-L., Keller, J., Runge, M., Shea, K. (accepted 4/16/2021) Weighing the unknowns: Value of information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management. Journal of Applied Ecology.
  1. Seifarth, J., Inamine, H., Buckling, A., Shea, K. (accepted 2/17/2021) Duration and timing interactions of early life stress and the potential for recovery. Ecosphere.
  1. Tao, Y., Probert, W.J.M., Shea, K., Runge, M.C., Lafferty, K., Tildesley, M., Ferrari, M. (2021) Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20200933. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0933
  1. Phadke, I. McKee, A., Conway, J.M., Shea, K. (2021) Analyzing How Changes in the Health Status of Healthcare Workers Affects Epidemic Outcomes. Epidemiology and Infection
  1. Miller, A., Inamine, H., Buckling, A., Roxburgh, S., Shea, K. (2021) How disturbance history alters invasion success: biotic legacies and regime change. Ecology Letters 24: 687-697.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ele.13685
  1. Sanchirico, J., Blackwood, J., Fitzpatrick, B., Kling, D., Lenhart, S. Neubert, M., Shea, K, Sims, C.B., Springborn, M. (accepted 9/14/2020) Political Economy of Renewable Resource Federalism. Ecological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2276
  1. Keller, J., Shea, K (accepted 8/7/2020) Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle. Ecology.
  1. Sezen, Z., Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K. (2021) Oviposition response of the biocontrol agent Rhinocyllus conicus to resource distribution in its invasive host, Carduus nutans. Biological Control 152:104369.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocontrol.2020.104369
  1. Atkins, B.B., Jewell, C.P., Runge, M.C., Ferrari, M.J., Shea, K., Probert, W.J.M, Tildesley, M.J. (2020) Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: A comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting. Journal of Theoretical Biology 506:110380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110380
  1. Shea, K., Runge, M.C. Pannell, D., Probert, W.J.M. Li S.-L., Tildesley, M., Ferrari, M. (2020) Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management. Science 368: 577-579.
  1. Luke, L, Hesse, E, Shea, K, and Buckling, A (2020) Disentangling the mechanisms underpinning disturbance-mediated invasion. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 287: 20192415. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.2415
  1. Russo, L, Keller, J, Vaudo, AD, Grozinger, CM, & Shea, K (2020) Warming increases pollen lipid concentration in an invasive thistle, with minor effects on the associated floral-visitor community. Insects 11(1): 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects11010020
  1. Schupp, EW, Zwolak, R, Jones, LR, Snell, RS, Beckman, NG, Aslan, C, Cavazos, BR, Effiom, E, Fricke, EC, Montaño-Centellas, F, Poulsen, J, Razafindratsima, OH, Sandor, ME, and Shea, K (2019) Intrinsic and Extrinsic Drivers of Intraspecific Variation in Seed Dispersal Are Diverse and Pervasive. AoB PLANTS 11: plz067. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plz067
  1. Russo, L, Albert, R, Campbell, C, and Shea, K (2019) Experimental species introduction shapes network interactions in a plant-pollinator community. Biological Invasions 21: 3505–3519. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10530-019-02064-z.  https://rdcu.be/bLVvJ
  1. Russo, L, Vaudo, AD, Fisher, CJ, Grozinger, CM, & Shea, K. (2019) Bee community preference for an invasive thistle associated with higher pollen protein content. Oecologia 190(4): 901-912. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04462-5
  1. Zhang, R. and Shea, K. (2019) Working Smarter, Not Harder: Objective-dependent Management of an Invasive Thistle, Carduus nutans. Invasive Plant Science and Management 12(3): 155-160.
  1. Li, S.-L., Ferrari, M.J., Bjørnstad, O.N., Runge, M.C., Fonnesbeck, C., Tildesley, M.J., Pannell, D., Shea, K. (2019) Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control: Ebola as a case study. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 286: 20190774. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.0774
  1. Rogers, H., N. Beckman, F. Hartig, J.S. Johnson, G. Pufal, K. Shea, D. Zurell, J.M. Bullock, S. Cantrell, B. Loiselle, L. Pejchar, O. Razafindratsima, M. Sandor, E.W. Schupp, C. Strickland, J. Zambrano. (2019) The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions. AoB PLANTS 11: plz042.  https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plz042
  1. Probert, W. J. M., Lakkur S., Fonnesbeck C.J., Shea K., Runge M. C., Tildesley M. J., Ferrari M.J. (2019) Context Matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 374: 20180277.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0277
  1. Johnson, J. S., S. Cantrell, C. Cosner, F. Hartig, A. Hastings, H. Rogers, E. W. Schupp, K. Shea, B. J. Teller, X. Yu, D. Zurell, and G. Pufal. (2019) Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change. AoB PLANTS 11: plz020. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plz020
  1. Beckman, N. G., C. E. Aslan, H. R. Rogers, O. Kogan, J. L. Bronstein, J. M. Bullock, F. Hartig, J. HilleRisLambers, Y. Zhou, D. Zurell, J. F. Brodie, E. M. Bruna, R. S. Cantrell, R. Decker, E. O. Effiom, E. C. Fricke, K. Gurski, A. Hastings, J. Johnson, B. A. Loiselle, M. N. Miriti, M. G. Neubert, L. Pejchar, J. R. Poulsen, G. Pufal, O. H. Razafindratsima, M. Sandor, K. Shea, S. J. Schreiber, E. W. Schupp, R. S. Snell, C. Strickland, and J. Zambrano. (2019) Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology. AoB PLANTS 11: plz048. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plz048
  1. Aslan, C.E., N. Beckman, H. Rogers, J. Bronstein, D. Zurell, F. Hartig, K. Shea, L. Pejchar, M. Neubert, J. Poulsen, J. HilleRisLambers, M. Miriti, B. Loiselle, E. Effiom, J. Zambrano, E. Schupp, G. Pufal, J. Johnson, J. Bullock, J. Brodie, E. Bruna, S. Cantrell, R. Decker, E. Fricke, K. Gurski, A. Hastings, O. Kogan, O. Razafindratsima, M. Sandor, S. Schreiber, R. Snell, C. Strickland, and Y. Zhou. (2019). Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation. AoB PLANTS 11: plz006. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plz006
  1. Miller, A.D.M. Hsing, P.-Y., Roxburgh, S., Fisher, C., Shea, K. (2018) Impacts of altered disturbance regimes on community structure and biodiversity mediated by fecundity-tolerance interactions. Natural Resource Modeling: e12199. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12199.
  1. Probert, W.J.M., Jewell, C.P., Werkman, M., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Goto, Y., Runge, M.C., Sekiguchi, S., Shea, K., Keeling, M.J., Ferrari, M.J., and Tildesley, M.J. (2018) Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks. PLOS Computational Biology 14(7): e1006202. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006202
  1. Tao, Y. Shea, K., Ferrari, M. (2018) Logistical constraints lead to an intermediate optimum in outbreak response vaccination. PLOS Computational Biology 14(5): e1006161. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006161
  1. Baker, C.M., Ferrari, M.J., Shea, K (2018) Beyond dose: Pulsed antibiotic treatment schedules can maintain individual benefit while reducing resistance. Scientific Reports 8: 5866. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24006-w. Avalible at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-24006-w
  1. Vahsen M.L., Shea, K., Hovis, C.L., Teller, B.J. and Hufbauer, R.A. (2018) Prior adaptation, diversity, and introduction frequency mediate the positive relationship between propagule pressure and the initial success of founding populations. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1713-4
  1. Fonnesbeck, C.J., Shea, K., Carran, S., Cassio de Moraes, J., Gregory, C.J., Goodson, J.L. and Ferrari. M.J. (2018) Measles outbreak response decision-making under uncertainty: a retrospective analysis. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 15: 20170575. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0575
  1. Girard, F., Shea, K., and Fisher, C.R. (2018) Projecting the recovery of a long-lived deep-sea coral species after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using state-structured models. Journal of Applied Ecology 55: 1812–1822.  doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13141
  1. McKee, A., Ferrari, M.J. and Shea, K. (2018) Correlation between measles vaccine doses: Implications for the maintenance of elimination. Epidemiology and Infection 146(4): 468-475.
  1. Russo, L. Miller, A.D. Tooker, J., Bjornstad, O.N., and Shea, K. Quantitative evolutionary patterns in bipartite networks: Vicariance, phylogenetic tracking, or diffuse coevolution? (2018) Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9:761-772. doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12914

See also: https://methodsblog.wordpress.com/2018/01/18/coevolutionary-history/

Dr. Russo won the 2018 Robert May Early Career Researcher Award from the British Ecological Society (BES) for this paper.

  1. Li, S.-L., Bjørnstad, O.N., Ferrari, M.J., Mummah, R., Runge, M.C., Fonnesbeck, C., Tildesley, M.J., Probert, W.J.M., Shea, K. (2017) Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1617482114. See http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/05/10/1617482114.abstract
  1. Campbell, C., Aucott, S., Ruths, J., Ruths, D. Shea, K. and Albert, R. (2017) Correlations in the degeneracy of structurally controllable topologies for networks. Scientific Reports 7: 46251. DOI:10.1038/srep46251. Available at: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep46251.
  1. Milner-Gulland, E.J. and Shea, K. (2017) Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology. Journal of Applied Ecology.   doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12887.

See also: https://jappliedecologyblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/uncertainty-matters-in-modelling-but-it-can-be-overcome-if-some-simple-rules-are-followed/

  1. Bradbury, N.V., Probert, W.J.M., Shea, K., Runge, M.C., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Keeling, M.J., Matthew J. Ferrari, M.J., and Tildesley, M.J. (2017) Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns. PLoS Computational Biology 13(2): e1005318. DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318.
  1. Sezen, Z., Johnson, D.M. and Shea, K. (2017) Individually-Mark Mass-Release Resight study elucidates effects of patch characteristics and distance on host patch location by an insect herbivore. Ecological Entomology 42(3): 273-282.
  1. Rauschert, E.S.J. and Shea, K. (2017) Competition between similar invasive species: modeling invasional interference across a landscape. Population Ecology 59(1): 79-88.                                       DOI: 10.1007/s10144-016-0569-7
  1. McKee, A., Shea, K., and Ferrari, M.J. (2017) Optimal vaccine schedules to maintain measles elimination with a two-dose routine policy. Epidemiology and Infection 145(2): 227–235.
  1. Russo, L.A., and Shea, K. (2016) Deliberately increased network connectance in a plant-pollinator community experiment. Journal of Complex Networks 10.1093/comnet/cnw024.
  1. Campbell, C., Russo, L.A., Marins, A., DeSouza, O., Schönrogge, K., Mortensen, D. Tooker, J., Albert, R., and Shea, K. (2016) Top-down network analysis characterizes hidden termite-termite interactions. Ecology and Evolution 6: 6178-6188.
  1. Marins, A., Costa, D., Russo, L., Campbell, C., DeSouza, O., Bjørnstad, O., and Shea, K. (2016) Termite cohabitation: the relative effect of biotic and abiotic factors on mound biodiversity. Ecological Entomology 41: 532-541.
  1. Teller, B.J., Zhang, R. and Shea, K. (2016) Seed release in a changing climate: Initiation of movement increases spread of an invasive species under simulated climate warming. Diversity and Distributions 22: 708-716.
  1. Probert, W.J.M., Shea, K., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Runge, M.C, Carpenter, T.E., Dürr, S., Garner, M.G., Harvey, N., Stevenson, M.A., Webb, C.T., Werkman, M., Tildesley, M.J., Ferrari, M.J. (2016) Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: objectives matter. Epidemics 15: 10-19.  doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.11.002.
  1. Russo, L.A., Nichol, C. and Shea, K. (2016) Pollinator floral provisioning by a plant invader: quantifying beneficial effects of detrimental species. Diversity and Distributions 22:189-198. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12397.
  1. Campbell, C., Ruths, J., Ruths, D., Shea, K., and Albert, R. (2015) Topological constraints on network control profiles. Scientific Reports 5: 18693. DOI: 10.1038/srep18693. Available at: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep18693.
  1. McCormick, G.L., Shea, K. and Langkilde, T. (2015) How do duration, frequency, and intensity of exogenous CORT elevation affect immune outcomes of stress? General and Comparative Endocrinology 222: 81-87. DOI: 10.1016/j.ygcen.2015.07.008.
  1. Rauschert, E., Shea, K. and Goslee, S. (2015) Plant community associations of two invasive thistles. AoB Plants 7: plv065. doi:10.1093/aobpla/plv065
  1. Campbell, C., Shea, K., Yang, S., and Albert, R. (2015) Motif profile dynamics and transient species in a Boolean model of mutualistic ecological communities. Journal of Complex Networks 2015. doi: 10.1093/comnet/cnv008.
  1. Teller, B.J. Marden, J.H. and Shea, K. (2015) Covariation in abscission force and terminal velocity of wind-borne sibling seeds alters long distance dispersal projections. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 6:593-599.

This paper was re-published in a virtual issue of Methods in Ecology and Evolution on Integrating Evolution and Ecology in honor of the late Isabelle Olivieri in August 2018.

  1. McKee, A., Ferrari, M.J. and Shea, K. (2015) The effects of maternal immunity and age structure on population immunity to measles. Theoretical Ecology 8: 261–271.
  1. Jongejans, E., Skarpaas, O., Ferrari, M.J., Long, E.S., Dauer, J.T., Schwarz, C.M., Rauschert, E.S.J., Jabbour, R., Mortensen, D.A., Isard, S.A., Lieb, D.A., Sezen, Z., Hulting, A.G. and Shea, K. (2015) A unifying gravity framework for dispersal. Theoretical Ecology 8:207-223.
  1. Jongejans, E., Silverman, E.J., Skarpaas, O. and Shea, K. (2015) Post-dispersal seed removal of Carduus nutans and C. acanthoides by insects and small mammals. Ecological Research 30:173-180.
  1. Campbell, C., Yang, S., Albert, R and Shea, K. (2015) Plant-pollinator community network response to species invasion depends on both invader and community characteristics. Oikos 124: 406–413. doi: 10.1111/oik.02039.
  1. Teller, B.J. Miller, A.D. and Shea, K. (2015) Conservation of passively dispersed organisms in the context of habitat degradation and destruction. Journal of Applied Ecology 52: 514-521.
  1. Campbell, C., Shea, K. and Albert, R. (2014). Comment on “Control Profiles of Complex Networks.” Science 346: 561. DOI: 10.1126/science.1256492
  1. Shea, K., Tildesley, M.J. Runge, M.C., Fonnesbeck, C.J. Ferrari, M.J. (2014) Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning via Intervention in Epidemiology. PLoS Biology 12(10): e1001970. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001970
  1. Teller, B.J., Campbell, C. and Shea, K. (2014) Dispersal under duress: can stress enhance performance of a passively dispersed species? Ecology 95(10): 2694-2698. http://www.esajournals.org/userimages/ContentEditor/1413918953031/0012-9658-95-10.pdf
  1. Russo, L.A., Memmott, J., Montoya, D. Shea, K. and Buckley, Y.M. (2014) Patterns of introduced species interactions affect multiple aspects of network structure in plant-pollinator communities. Ecology 95(10): 2953-2963.
  1. Silva, F.M.L, Donega, M.A., Cerdeira, A.L., Corniani, N., Velini, E.D., Cantrell, C.L., Dayan, F.E., Coelho, M.N., Shea, K. and Duke, S.O. (2014) Roots of the invasive species Carduus nutans L. and C. acanthoides L. produce large amounts of aplotaxene, a possible allelochemical.  Journal of Chemical Ecology 40:276–284. DOI 10.1007/s10886-014-0390-8.
  1. LaBar, T., Campbell, C., Yang, S., Albert, R. and Shea, K. (2014) Restoration of plant-pollinator interaction networks via species translocation. Theoretical Ecology 7: 209-220.
  1. Marchetto KM, Shea K, Kelly D, Groenteman R, Sezen, Z, Jongejans E (2014) Unrecognized impact of a biocontrol agent on the spread rate of an invasive thistle. Ecological Applications 24(5): 1178-1187.
  1. Garrison, A., Miller, A.D., Ryan, M.R. Roxburgh, S. and Shea, K. (2014) Stacked crop rotations exploit weed-weed competition for sustainable weed management. Weed Science 62(1): 166-176. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/WS-D-13-00037.1
  1. Russo, L., DeBarros, N., Yang, S., Yang, Shea, K., Mortensen, D. (2013) Supporting crop pollinators with floral resources: network-based phenological matching. Ecology and Evolution 3(9): 3125-3140.
  1. Caplat, P., Cheptou, P-O., Diez, J., Guisan, A., Larson, B. M. H., Macdougall, A. S., Peltzer, D. A., Richardson, D.M., Shea, K., Van Kleunen, M., Zhang R. and Buckley, Y. M. (2013) Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions. Oikos 122: 1265-1274.
  1. LaBar, T., Campbell, C., Yang, S., Albert, R. and Shea, K. (2013) Global versus local extinction in a network model of plant-pollinator communities. Theoretical Ecology 6(4): 495-503. doi:10.1007/s12080-013-0182-8.
  1. Jeltsch, F., Blaum, N., Brose, U., Chipperfield, J.D., Clough, Y., Farwig, N., Geissler, K., Graham, C.H., Grimm, V., Hickler, T., Huth, A., May, F., Meyer, K.M., Pagel, J., Reineking, B., Rillig, M.C., Shea, K., Schurr, F.M., Schröder, B., Tielbörger, K., Weiss, L., Wiegand, K., Wiegand, T., Wirth, C., Zurell, D. (2013) How can we bring together empiricists and modellers in functional biodiversity research? Basic and Applied Ecology 14: 93-101.
  1. Rauschert, E.S.J. and Shea, K. (2012) Influence of microsite disturbance on the establishment of two congeneric invasive thistles. PLoS ONE 7(9): e45490. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045490
  1. Campbell, C., Yang, S., Shea, K., and Albert, A. (2012) Topology of plant-pollinator networks that are vulnerable to collapse from species extinction. Physical Review E 86: 021924. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.021924
  1. Garrison, A., Miller, A.D., Roxburgh, S. and Shea, K. (2012) More bang for the land manager’s buck: Disturbance autocorrelation can be used to achieve management objectives at no additional cost. Journal of Applied Ecology 49: 1020–1027. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02187.x
  1. Zhang, R., Post, E. and Shea, K. (2012) Warming leads to divergent responses but similarly improved performance of two invasive thistles. Population Ecology. 54 (4): 583-589. DOI 10.1007/s10144-012-0327-4.
  1. Hall, A.R., Miller, A.D, Leggett, H.C., Roxburgh, S.H., Buckling, A. and Shea, K. (2012) Diversity–disturbance relationships: frequency and intensity interact. Biology Letters 8: 768-771. DOI:10.1098/rsbl.2012.0282.
  1. Miller, A.D., Reilly, D.T, Bauman, S., and Shea, K. (2012) Interactions between Frequency and Size of Disturbance Affect Competitive Outcomes. Ecological Research 27: 783–791. DOI: 10.1007/s11284-012-0954-4
  1. Marchetto, K.M., Jongejans, E., Shea, K. and Auhl, R. (2012) Water Loss from Flower Heads Predicts Seed Release in Two Invasive Thistles. Plant Ecology and Diversity 5(1): 57-65. DOI: 10.1080/17550874.2012.667841.
  1. Rauschert, E.S.J, and Shea, K. (2012) Invasional interference due to similar inter- and intraspecific competition between invaders may affect management. Ecological Applications 22(5): 1413-1420
  1. Zhang, R., Gallagher R.S., and Shea, K. (2012) Maternal warming affects early life stages of an invasive thistle. Plant Biology 14(5): 783-788.
  1. Zhang, R. and Shea, K. (2012) Integrating Multiple Disturbance Aspects: Management of an Invasive Thistle, Carduus nutans. Annals of Botany 110(7): 1395-1401. DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcr312.
  1. Miller, A.D., Roxburgh, S.H., and Shea, K. (2012) Timing of disturbance alters competitive outcomes and mechanisms of coexistence in an annual plant model. Theoretical Ecology 5(3): 419-432. (DOI 10.1007/s12080-011-0133-1).
  1. Rauschert, E.S.J, Shea, K. and Bjørnstad, O.N. (2012) Coexistence patterns of two invasive thistle species, Carduus nutans and C. acanthoides, at three spatial scales. Biological Invasions 14 (1): 151-164.
  1. Zhang, R., Leshak, A. and Shea, K. (2012) Decreased structural defense of an invasive thistle under warming. Plant Biology 14(1): 249-252.
  1. Moore, C.T., Fonnesbeck, C.J., Shea, K., Lah, K.J., McKenzie, P.M. Ball, L.C., Runge, M.C., Alexander, H.M. (2011) An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management. 2(2):247–261. doi: 10.3996/012011-JFWM-007.
  1. Zhang, R., Jongejans, E. and Shea, K. (2011) Warming increases the spread of an invasive thistle.  PLoS ONE 6(6): e21725. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021725
  1. Russo, L., Stehouwer, R., Heberling, J.M., Shea, K. (2011) The Composite Insect Trap: an innovative combination trap for biologically diverse sampling. PLoS ONE  6(6): e21079. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021079.
  1. Nord, E.A., Shea, K. and Lynch, J.P. (2011) Optimizing Reproductive Phenology in a Two-Resource World: A Dynamic Allocation Model of Plant Growth Predicts Later Reproduction in Phosphorus Limited Plants. Annals of Botany 108(2): 391-404. (doi:10.1093/aob/mcr143)
  1. Miller, A.D., Roxburgh, S.H. and Shea, K. (2011) How frequency and intensity shape diversity-disturbance relationships. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 108(14): 5643-5648.
  1. Zhang, R., Heberling, J.M., Haner, E. and Shea, K. (2011) Tolerance of Two Invasive Thistles to Repeated Disturbance. Ecological Research 26(3): 575-581.
  1. Skarpaas, O. Shea, K. and Jongejans, E. (2011) Watch your time step: trapping and tracking dispersal in autocorrelated environments. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 2: 407-415.
  1. Campbell, C., Yang, Y., Albert, R. and Shea, K. (2011) A network model for plant-pollinator community assembly. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 108(1): 197-202.
  1. Ruggiero, D. C. and Shea, K. (2011) Effects of interspecific competition on early life history of the invasive thistles Carduus nutans and C. acanthoides. Northeastern Naturalist 18(2), 197–206.
  1. Yang, Suann, Ferrari, Matthew J. and Shea, K. (2011) Pollinator behavior mediates negative interactions between two congeneric invasive plant species. American Naturalist 177(1): 110-118.
  1. Jongejans, E., Shea, K., Skarpaas, O., Kelly, D. & Ellner, S.P. (2011) Importance of individual variation to the spread of invasive species: a spatial integral projection model. Ecology 92: 86-97.
  1. Skarpaas, O., Silverman, E.J., Jongejans, E., Shea, K. (2011) Are the best dispersers the best colonizers? Seed mass, dispersal and establishment in Carduus thistles. Evolutionary Ecology 25: 155-169.
  1. Marchetto, K.M., Jongejans, E., Shea, K. and Isard, S.A. (2010) Plant Spatial Arrangement Affects Projected Invasion Speeds of Two Invasive Thistles. Oikos 119: 1462–1468.
  1. Jongejans, E., de Kroon, H., Tuljapurkar, S. and Shea, K. (2010) Plant populations track rather than buffer climate fluctuations. Ecology Letters 13: 736–743.
  1. Peterson-Smith, J. and Shea, K. (2010) Seedling emergence and early survival of Carduus spp. in three habitats with press and pulse disturbances. The Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society 137(2): 287-296.
  1. Marchetto, K.M., Williams, M.B., Jongejans, E., Auhl, R., and Shea, K. (2010) Applications of Particle Image Velocimetry for seed release and dispersal studies. Ecology 91(8): 2485-2492.
  1. Shea, K., Jongejans, E., Skarpaas, O., Kelly, D., Sheppard, A. (2010) Optimal management strategies to control local population growth or population spread may not be the same. Ecological Applications 20(4): 1148-1161.
  1. Marchetto, K.M., Jongejans, E., Jennis, M.L., Haner, E.M., Sullivan, C.T., Kelly, D. and Shea, K. (2010) Shipment and storage effects on the terminal velocity of seeds. Ecological Research 25: 83–92.
  1. Bogich, T., Liebhold, A.M. and Shea, K. (2008) To sample or eradicate? A cost minimization model for monitoring and managing an invasive species. Journal of Applied Ecology 45(4): 1134-1142.
  1. Jongejans, E., K. Shea, O. Skarpaas, D. Kelly, A.W. Sheppard and T.L. Woodburn (2008) Dispersal and demography contributions to population spread of Carduus nutans in its native and invaded ranges. Journal of Ecology 96:687-697.

39b. Bogich, T. and Shea, K. (2011) Errata: A state-dependent model for the optimal management of an invasive metapopulation (vol 18, pg 748, 2008).  Ecological Applications 21(5): 1886-1886.

  1. Bogich, T. and Shea, K. (2008) A state-dependent model for the optimal management of an invasive metapopulation. Ecological Applications 18(3): 748–761.
  1. Jongejans, E., O. Skarpaas and K. Shea (2008). Dispersal, demography and spatial population models for conservation and control management. Perspectives in Plant Ecology Evolution and Systematics 9: 153–170.
  1. Jongejans, E., Pedatella, N.M., Shea, K., Skarpaas, O and Auhl, R. (2007) Seed release by invasive thistles: the impact of plant and environmental factors. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 274: 2457-2464.
  1. Skarpaas, O. and Shea, K. (2007) Dispersal patterns, dispersal mechanisms and invasion wave speeds for Carduus thistles. American Naturalist 170(3): 421-430.
  1. Jongejans, E., Skarpaas, O. Tipping, P.W. and Shea, K. (2007) Establishment and spread of founding populations of an invasive thistle: the role of competition and seed limitation. Biological Invasions 9: 317-325.
  1. Jongejans, E., Sheppard, A.W., and Shea, K. (2006) What controls the population dynamics of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans in its native range? Journal of Applied Ecology 43: 877-886.
  1. Bullock, J.M., Shea, K., and Skarpaas, O. (2006) Measuring plant dispersal: an introduction to field methods and experimental design.  Plant Ecology 186: 217-234.
  1. Shea, K., Wolf, N. and Mangel, M. (2006)  Effects of density dependence on the detection of adult population trends from juvenile surveys in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch).  Journal of Zoology 269: 442-450.
  1. Shea, K., Sheppard, A.W. and Woodburn, T.L. (2006) Seasonal life history models for the integrated management of the invasive weed nodding thistle (Carduus nutans) in Australia.  Journal of Applied Ecology 43: 517-526.
  1. Rubbo, M.J., Shea, K., and Kiesecker, J.M. (2006) Multi-stage predation as a determinant of amphibian breeding distribution. (Mike Rubbo was my Ph.D. student).  Canadian Journal of Zoology 84: 449-458.
  1. Allen, M.R. and Shea, K. (2006) Spatial segregation of congeneric invaders in central Pennsylvania, USA. Biological Invasions 8: 509-521.
  1. Pauchard, A. and Shea, K. (2006) Integrating the Study of Non-native Plant Invasions across Spatial Scales. Biological Invasions 8: 399-413.
  1. Skarpaas, O., Auhl, R. and Shea, K. (2006) Environmental variability and the initiation of dispersal: turbulence strongly increases seed release. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 273 (1587): 751-756
  1. Shea, K., Kelly, D., Sheppard, A. W. and Woodburn, T. L. (2005) Context-dependent biological control of an invasive thistle. Ecology 86: 3174-3181.
  1. Skarpaas, O., Shea, K. and Bullock, J.M. (2005) Optimizing dispersal study design by Monte Carlo simulation. Journal of Applied Ecology 42: 731-739.
  1. Cordes, E. E., Arthur, M. A., Shea, K., Arvidson R. S. and Fisher, C. R. (2005) Modeling the mutualistic interactions between tubeworms and microbial consortia. Public Library of Science (PLoS) Biology 3: e77.
  1. Louda, S.M., Rand, T.A., Arnett, A.E., McClay, A.S., Shea, K., and McEachern, A.K. (2005) Evaluation of ecological risk to populations of a threatened plant from an invasive biocontrol insect. Ecological Applications 15: 234-249.
  1. Shea, K. (2004) Models for improving the targeting and implementation of biological control of weeds. Weed Technology 18: 1578-1581.
  1. Shea, K. and D. Kelly. (2004) Modeling for management of invasive species: musk thistle (Carduus nutans) in New Zealand. Weed Technology 18: 1338-1341.
  1. Tenhumberg, B. Tyre, A.J., Shea, K. and Possingham, H.P. (2004) Linking wild and captive populations to maximize species persistence: optimal translocation strategies. Conservation Biology 18: 1304-1314.
  1. Shea, K., Roxburgh, S.H. and Rauschert, E.S.J. (2004) Moving from pattern to process: coexistence mechanisms under intermediate disturbance regimes. Ecology Letters 7: 491-508.
  1. Roxburgh, S.H., Shea, K. and J. Bastow Wilson. (2004) The intermediate disturbance hypothesis: patch dynamics and mechanisms of species coexistence. Ecology 85: 359-371.
  1. Cordes, E.E., Bergquist, D.C., Shea, K. and Fisher, C.R. (2003) Hydrogen sulphide demand of long-lived vestimentiferan tube worm aggregations modifies the chemical environment at deep-sea hydrocarbon seeps. Ecology Letters 6: 1-9.
  1. Shea, K. and Chesson, P. (2002) Community theory as a framework for biological invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17: 170-176.
  1. Shea, K., Possingham, H., Murdoch, W.W. and Roush, R. (2002) Active adaptive management in weed and insect pest control: agent selection, host specificity, release strategies, resistance management, weed control and expert systems. Ecological Applications 12: 927-936.
  1. Travers, S.E. and Shea, K. (2001) Individual variation, gametophytic competition and style length: does size affect paternity? Evolutionary Ecology Researches 3: 729-745.
  1. Shea, K. and Mangel, M. (2001) Detection of population trends in threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 375-385.
  1. Milner-Gulland, E.J., Shea, K., Possingham, H., Coulson, T. and Wilcox, C. (2001) Competing harvesting strategies in a simulated population under uncertainty. Animal Conservation 4: 157-167.
  1. Shea, K., Smyth, M., Sheppard, A., Morton, R. and Chalimbaud, J. (2000) Effect of patch size and plant density of a weed (Echium plantagineum) on the oviposition of a biological control agent (Mogulones larvatus).  Oecologia 124: 615-621.
  1. Shea, K. and Possingham, H. (2000) Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: An application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management. Journal of Applied Ecology 37: 77-86.
  1. Shea, K., Thrall, P.H. and Burdon, J.J. (2000) An integrated approach to management in epidemiology and pest control. Ecology Letters 3: 150-158.
  1. Possingham, H. and Shea, K. (1999) The business of biodiversity. Australian Zoologist 31: 3-5.
  1. Possingham, H. and Shea, K. (1999) Decision theory as a framework for conservation ecology. Australian Zoologist 31: 9-10.
  1. Shea, K. and the NCEAS Working Group on Population Management (1998) Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 13: 371-375.
  1. Shea, K. & Kelly, D. (1998) Estimating biocontrol agent impact with matrix models: Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Ecological Applications 8: 824-832.
  1. Parma, A.M. and the NCEAS Working Group on Population Management (1998) What can adaptive management do for our fish, forests, food and biodiversity? Integrative Biology, Issues, News, and Reviews 1: 16-26.
  1. Shea, K. (1996) Estimating the impact of control efforts: models of population dynamics. Plant Protection Quarterly 11 (Supplement 2): 263-265.
  1. Shea, K., Murdoch, W.W., Nisbet, R.M. & Yoo, H-J. (1996) The effect of egg limitation in host-parasitoid population models. Journal of Animal Ecology 65: 743-755.
  1. Shea, K., Rees, M. & Wood, S.N. (1994) Trade-offs, elasticities and the comparative method. Journal of Ecology 82: 951-957.

Invited Publications

  1. Shea, K., Bjørnstad, O., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Uncertainty and the management of epidemics. Nature Methods 17: 867–868.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-020-0943-4
  1. Bjørnstad, O., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics. Nature Methods 17: 557–558. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-020-0856-2. Minor equation correction at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-021-01079-6
  1. Bjørnstad, O., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. (2020) Modeling Infectious Epidemics. Nature Methods 17: 455–456. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41592-020-0822-z
  1. Shea, K. (2007) How the Wood Moves. Science 315: 1231-1232.
  1. Kiesecker, J.M., Belden, L.K., Shea, K. and Rubbo, M. (2004) Amphibian decline and emerging disease. American Scientist 92: 138-147.

Peer-reviewed book chapters

  1. Shea, K., Metaxas, A., Young, C.R., and Fisher, C.R. (2008) Processes and Interactions in Macrofaunal Assemblages at Hydrothermal Vents: A Modeling Perspective. American Geophysical Union Monograph, Modeling Hydrothermal Processes at Oceanic Spreading Centers: Magma to Microbe.
  1. Lewis, M.A., Neubert, M.G., Caswell, H., Clark, J.S. and Shea, K. (2006) A guide to calculating discrete-time invasion rates from data.  Pages 169-192 In: Conceptual ecology and invasion biology: reciprocal approaches to nature. Editors: Marc W. Cadotte, Sean M. McMahon and Tadashi Fukami. Invading Nature – Springer Series in Invasion Ecology Volume 1. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Peer-reviewed conference proceedings

  1. Jongejans, M.R. Allen, A.E. Leib, K.M. Marchetto, N.M. Pedatella, J. Peterson-Smith, E.S.J. Rauschert, D.C. Ruggiero, L.A. Russo, L.E. Ruth, Z. Sezen, O. Skarpaas, B.J. Teller, L.A. Warg, S. Yang, R. Zhang, and K. Shea.  (2011) Spatial dynamics of invasive Carduus thistles. In: Chan F, Marinova D & Anderssen RS (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 2514-2520. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7

Scientific and Popular Press Coverage of Research

General Scenario Modeling Hub press:

Bochering et al. (2021) was reported by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of CDC, at the White House COVID-19 press release on May 5 2021.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/05/pandemic-under-control-this-summer/

Coverage of Shea et al. (2020) Science Policy Forum article:

Online coverage of Shea et al 2014 PLOS Biology paper on disease management:

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